Football Index Guide – What Influences Player Share Price?

One of the main strategies for making money on Football Index is buying players for cheap and selling them when they gain value. Buy low, sell high! This is the most common way to make money in any stock market and is the fancy pants word for it is – capital appreciation.

So how do you predict someone will increase or decrease in value?

 

There are some obvious reasons that probably don’t require too much explanation, such as transfer rumours, forms or injuries which will naturally cause a player’s share price to change.  

However, just how these events impact a player’s price might not be so obvious, and there are some other reasons which are less obvious, especially to new traders on the Football Index.

Here at Football Index Tips we have compiled a list of all of the reasons that we think YOU need to know about to get the most out of trading on Football Index.

 

What do you need to know before reading this list?

  

To really get to grips with some of the reasons why players value fluctuate you will need to know a couple of the basics about how the Football Index platform works: 

Performance Buzz dividends and In-Play dividends are only available to players that play in the following competitions:

 

Top 5 European Leagues:

Premier League (English)
Ligue 1 (French)
La Liga (Spanish)
Bundesliga (German)
Serie A (Italian)

 

European Competitions:

Champions League
Europa League

International Competitions*:

UEFA Nations League
FIFA World Cup

*more competitions can be added by Football Index at their own discretion
 

This means that even if Messi scored a hatrick in every game for Argentina, it wouldn’t count towards performance buzz scores or win you in-play dividends unless it was at an eligible competition like the World Cup. 

The third way to win dividends is through ‘Media Buzz’, there are currently only available to the ‘First Team’ players list which includes the top 200 players. This is due to change in the coming months, opening up to every player on the Football Index.

Finally, performance buzz dividends and media buzz dividends can be won at any time during the lifetime of your shares. On the other hand, in-play dividends can only be won in the first 30 days of you owning shares of that player.

Transfer Rumours

Firstly, and probably the most obvious reason for why a player’s value might change is transfer rumours and the possibility of a player moving to a new club.

The excitement around these potential moves causes newspapers and online news sites to churn out article after article which then causes players to fly up the media rankings on the FI making that player a possible Media Buzz winner which means daily dividends.

In addition to this, the long-term benefits of a player moving to a new club might be playing with better players, more lucrative competitions as well as international call ups.

Unfortunately, it’s not quite as simple as that, not every player linked with a move to a bigger club translates into an increase in value. It’s not unheard of for some players to have their value take a hit.

Below are some of the different transfer rumour scenarios that have happened to players on Football Index and typically what it does to the player share price.

Transfers to or from Eligible Performance Buzz and In-Play Dividends Leagues

 

Players being able to play in eligible Performance Buzz leagues and competitions is a major factor in influencing the value of players on Football Index.

A player moving from an illegible Performance Buzz league to a non-Performance Buzz leagues value will naturally drop drastically. An example of this is Aubameyang and his links to a move to China. 

These links caused traders to panic that Aubameyang would leave Arsenal, where he plays regularly in the Premier League and Europa League, in games where he is eligible for dividends and at the forefront of the British media to a league with limited media coverage and no performance based dividends.

Naturally traders will sell as the reduced likelihood of dividends reduces the overall share value of a player.

On the opposite hand, players moving from a non-Performance Buzz league to a Performance Buzz league can make for fruitful pickings.

The continuous rumours around Bruno Fernandez has caused his price to rise by over £1 in the last three months with the opportunity to win Performance Buzz dividends as well as the increased British Media exposure enhancing the possibility of Media Buzz dividends.

 

Leaving the English Premier League

 

 

Moving away from the Premier League

Similarly, moving to a non-performance Buzz league, players that move from the English Premier League to one of the other top European leagues can also expect a decrease in share value.

This is most likely due to traders that use a Media Buzz dividends strategy. Moving away from the Premier League means that players aren’t under the same media scrutiny as they were in England and thus less likely to win Media Buzz dividends. This makes them less attractive and their share value dips. We have chosen two examples to demonstrate this.

Firstly, Hazard’s move from Chelsea to Real Madrid lead to a drop in his share price. We believe this has to be due to a reduced likelihood of Media Buzz dividends. (Plus potentially the stage in the transfer cycle (read below for more information).

Our second example is Paul Pogba trying to push for a move away from Old Trafford. All he did was speak about the time being right for a new challenge and potentially moving out of the EPL (because there is no chance he would be sold to a club in the EPL).

As you can see, his interview/announcement was followed by a share price drop.

Moving to a ‘bigger’ club

So, we’ve covered what happens when players transfer to different leagues but what about if they get a transfer to a ‘bigger club’?

If you’re catching on to the trend, then some players making this move may be eligible to play in more competitions, ideally the Champions League or Europa League. This regularly results in a share price rise.

Throw into the mix the fact that they will now be playing with better players the player can get better performances thanks to the increased possibility of more chances to score, assist or keep clean sheets.

The example we have used for this is Daniel James and his move to Manchester United.

The expectation on his shoulders as a young player in a team that is heavily scrutinised in the British media spotlight leads to increasing Media Buzz Dividends opportunities.

Transfer Cycle

Another consideration for traders considering players that find themselves in a transfer sagas, is the stage of the cycle they are in. From our experience, we believe that transfers can be broken down into 4 stages.

To demonstrate an example of this we are using Aaron Wan-Bissaka and his recent transfer from Crystal Palace to Manchester United and what happened to his share price during this time.

Stage 1: The first stage of the process are the initial rumours. This stage typically begins when a player starts playing well and gains form to which the media (especially with homegrown British players) start building hype and making links to ‘bigger clubs’.

There is usually a spike in share price during this stage. Every trader on the Football Index is looking for the next big player and good form with a few transfer links are usually seen as buying signals to traders not wanting to miss out.

Stage 2: The second stage is the confirmation of a strong transfer rumour when a club becomes favourite to sign them.

In this stage there’s still no official club announcement but typically links are reported widely by the media and ‘reliable’ sources such as Sky Sports suggest medicals and arrangements are put in place. At this stage in the transfer cycle the player’s value tends to begin to plateau, traders hold shares to win media dividends.

Stage 3: The transfer confirmation. Clubs love unveiling their new players with clubs now looking to do this through creative reveals to post across all their social media channels.

During this stage a player’s value continues to plateau and tends to slowly begin to drop. For people new to the FI you might wonder why this is? A player has just signed for a new club surely he’s going to be talked about more than ever?

However, as with everything else in life, the British media moves on quickly. Players will normally win Media Buzz dividends for that day with a score of 1000+ but after this players media score will drop. This drop-in media attention leads to traders selling shares as they try to pick up their next media buzz winners.

Stage 4: Their first appearance or important actions. Players that transfer at the start or middle of Summer then have a long break until they can play their first competitive appearance or make their first major contribution.

The British media tend to love players first big stories and if a player hits the ground running at the new club a share price increase from Media Buzz or Performance Buzz chasers.

Injuries

A player getting injured is obviously going to reflect in their share price. If a player sustains an injury then their time away from playing removes their ability to win Performance Buzz dividends and side-lined players are normally overlooked by the British media reducing the likelihood of Media

Buzz dividends and injuries.

It’s typical for a player’s share price to drop as soon as they are injured, if a game is being shown live, or when the news is broken, if they have picked up the injury behind closed doors.

The most dramatic example of this happening is Chelsea’s promising Callum Hudson-Odoi who picked up an injury in April 2019 whilst playing against Burnley.

The market was extremely reactive to this injury news as the game was live on Sky Sports Monday night football. Hudson-Odoi’s value instantly took a hit with Football Index stepping into stopping trading on the player after a reduction of over £1 a share in a matter of minutes.

This highlights another important feature of Football Index in that they reserve the right to suspend trading of any player at any time, this allows for the financial security of the players on the platform as well the platform as a whole.

However, it’s not always a negative as a player getting an injury can be seen as an opportunity by vigilant traders. The inevitable price drop may make players more affordable to other traders who may consider buying the player ‘on the cheap’ taking the gamble that the player will regain form and his previous value upon his return.

Carrying on using Hudson-Odoi as an example, you can see how his price has gradually increased as traders with long term strategies buy on the cheap waiting for an increase in share price upon the players return to action.

This means that traders need to be up to date with the latest news on their players, as finding out that one of your holds has been injured later than the Football Index market can lead to a reduction in your portfolio value.

This also highlights the benefits of having a diverse portfolio. As a player picking up an injury can cause a sharp drop in share price which could be detrimental to their overall portfolio.

On the other hand, a portfolio built of several players reduces the risk of your investment as you are less reliant on the success of a single player’s share price.

Private Life Scandals

To new traders, the idea of a player they hold being involved a scandal in their private life surely sounds great right? This player will now be scrutinised by the British media for weeks with a mountain of Media Buzz score leading to dividends.

Unfortunately, that’s not quite the case.

You’re right in thinking that there will be more media articles about a player, however, Football Index has a sentence within their terms and conditions that ruins this idea.

Every article that is included within Football Index Media Buzz is automatically added to a player’s daily media score.

Following the addition of every article, there is a manual review that assesses the scoring of the article to make sure the article is correct. Upon this manual review, all articles that are not related to football (for example stories regarding partying or girls) are removed.

The Football Index market has seen some quite big scandals come out since it’s existence. The longest and most influential on share price was Ronaldo’s. In this case, there was a lot of uncertainty within the market as traders weren’t sure what to do.

In the end, the saga of these allegations slowly reduced Ronaldo’s price as the media continued to tarnish football articles with sentences like ‘amid rape claims’ which were removed by Football Index.

The second example is more recent and shows how Football Index traders are evolving and becoming more reactive.

At the start of June 2019, Neymar was the latest footballer to be accused of sexual abuse allegations, and although these were proven to be fake in only a few days, the market had already reacted.

Neymar’s share price dropped by over 50p overnight as traders panic sold shares worried about a repeat of the Ronaldo situation.

Player Contracts

After we’ve talked about how transfer rumours can affect a player’s share price then we must talk about players that stay loyal to their club and sign a new contract. Unfortunately, on the Football Index loyalty isn’t always rewarded.

The signing of a new contract by a player is a firm signal that they’re not moving to a new club and stops all transfer rumours. This then leads to reduced media coverage and the reduced likelihood of winning Media Buzz dividends thus a drop-in share price.

There are also other situations in which a player signing a new contract can increase share price such as staying in a Performance Buzz league.

An example of this could be a player like Aubameyang who is heavily linked with a move to China signing a new contract meaning he’s staying in the Premier League and will be eligible for Performance Buzz dividends in Premier League and European games.

Managerial Moves

Just as players share price are influenced by their own transfer sagas, their share price can be influenced by rumours of a manager leaving or a new manager arriving.

The different styles of play that managers operate as well as the so-called ‘philosophies’ they try to implement at a club have an influence on player roles, opportunities and even transfers.

Examples of these influences are managers that like a certain player or a player that likes working under a certain manager. Richarlison following Marco Silva to Everton demonstrates that these links exist. Opposingly Leeroy Sane is regularly linked with a move away for Man City as he is not considered a Pep Guardiola player.

Other opportunities may be managers that are willing to give young players a run out joining a club.

A prime example of this is when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer replaced Jose Mourinho as Manchester United leading to players like Tanith Chong and Mason Greenwood rising dramatically and becoming “ever-presents” in the Football Index first team list (Top 200 Players).

Nationality

Just like in the real world of football a players nationality has an influence on their price. Due to Football Index only being available in the UK, players from the home nations naturally are worth more with England leading the way.

The basic logic behind this is that British players will be the media spotlight more with their inflated price tags leading to longer transfer sagas and international call ups and appearances are always heavily scrutinised (especially for English players).

This extra media spotlight and arguably, the expectation for players to perform leads to increased opportunity to win Media Buzz dividends as well as the immeasurable impact of traders having soft spots for their countries next ‘big thing’.

Another influence although quite unique are players that have multiple eligibilities to several countries.

The prime example of Declan Rice and his uncertainty as to whether to play at international level for Ireland or England led to a media saga. Rice’s price grew rapidly with continuous Media Buzz wins especially on slow news days as newspapers kept up the controversy of the story.

The decision to play for England as opposed to Ireland then caused another price increase due to the media scrutiny England players receive again increasing his likelihood for Media Buzz dividends.

Opportunities

As obvious as it sounds the opportunities that a player has to play or start for their team (especially in youth players) has an impact on their share price.

There is a range of different reasons why a player may get more opportunities such as new managers, loans and issues with first team players such as arguments with managers, bad form or injury. Ideally in the case of opportunity you get on the player quickly before the rest of the market.

Another alternative is buying players that you believe are promising or may have opportunities in the near future and keep them as long term holds within your portfolio.

Players that are below the 50p mark on the platform don’t tend to drop by much with players in the 30p or below section rarely fluctuating by more than 2p at a time.

This diversification of your portfolio can mean that you have a lot of relatively low-risk investments that could rise to make a tidy profit in the future if they’re given their opportunity.

Form

It’s obvious right but a player putting in high-quality performances on a regular basis will gain attention on Football Index. Ideally for traders, if you can find players that are out of form or that have slipped under the radar in foreign leagues you can make a good profit when they kick into form in European competitions or get a transfer to a bigger club.

Great examples of players like this are Mohammed Salah or Lucas Digne. Both played for big clubs including Chelsea, Roma, Barcelona and PSG where things didn’t quite work out.

However, since they both have returned to the Premier League, to Liverpool and Everton respectively, their improved playing opportunities have allowed them to showcase their talents.

This has led to Salah consistently being in the top 10 most expensive players and Digne having one of the highest share prices of any defender.

Live TV Schedule

In recent decades the influence of live TV games has changed football dramatically from large money deals, changing of fixtures and audience exposure of football leagues.

Football Index is no exception to this with the live TV competitions and game schedule having an affect on players share price fluctuating.

In this section we have identified a few different reasons to do with how live TV matches can cause movement in the futures of players on Football Index.

We have all been there scouting the TV channels for something to watch before coming across a football match.

Sometimes it’s not the highest standard or the most exciting game but football is football and once it’s on you rarely turn it off. It is always good to keep an ear to the ground regarding what games are going to be shown live on domestic channels such as BBC and ITV but also the popular paid subscriptions such as Sky Sports and BT Sports.

Days where there is only one live game such as Friday and Monday nights on Sky Sports usually bring in good audiences as there is limited other football matches available to watch.

It’s not only Sky with an influence as BT regularly plays Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 games which are all leagues that are eligible for In-Play and Performance Buzz dividends.

ITV also chipped in towards the end of the 18/19 season signing a deal with La Liga to show one game a week.

On single match days where not many games are being played there is a real opportunity to make more money on players through dividends.

However, making money isn’t only dependant on dividends but there is also a possibility of players prices rising, even in non-Performance Buzz leagues.

The English Championship is a great example of this with regular Friday night games being the main entertainment in homes, pubs and bars across the UK.

This increased audience may make traders aware of some hidden gems playing in lower leagues that you know are top quality players.

Keeping an eye out for the live TV games in off-peak times and investing in a few starting 11 players for those games can lead to good capital appreciation gains.

Another prime example of how TV airtime can influence player share price is the under 21’s European Championships in 2019. The mid-Summer tournament fed the craving for football fans across the World to watch the beautiful game after waiting weeks since the domestic season finished.

A bonus for Football Index traders was the fact it was a youth tournament, with the majority of Europe’s finest young talents able to show off their ability. Sky Sports showed every game live which created a wide captive audience all looking for the next star.

This tournament led to several young players share price rising dramatically with some of the players top performers such as Ianis Hagi’s price almost doubling.

Finally, the UK is quite unique when it comes to football as the Premier League is widely considered the best league in the World.

This leads to Worldwide coverage of games and a lot of British supporters not really checking up on the other top 4 leagues (unless you’ve got a couple of bets on obviously).

This can result in some opportunities on Football Index as some players may slip under the radar in other leagues. Admittedly the Football Index trader community are very eagle eyed and there is always someone on social media talking about Le Havre’s latest youth prospect (for example.)

The opportunity to watch the other European Leagues may give you a chance to buy players that are eligible for Performance and In-Play dividends before they are widely known and invest in players.

International Tournaments

It’s not only games that are live on TV that can cause players future price to rise or fall but also international tournaments in general. Obviously, the 2018 World Cup caused major price increases on Football Index with 3 or 4 matches live every day for a month making everyone football crazy.

The international tournaments we are more interested in are the continental competitions such as the Copa America and AFCON. The beauty of these tournaments being played in the Summer months again means that there is limited other football available to watch.

Although these games aren’t typically available to watch easily in the UK the British media still pick up on players who are playing well or causing controversy.

This media coverage is typically heightened around Premier League players as the British media try to get the attention of their club team’s fans.

The success of the Brazil team in the 2019 Copa America helped with good performances and important goals by Gabriel Jesus of Manchester City and Roberto Firmino of Liverpool have led to a gradual share price increase as well as some high Media Buzz scores.

Single Match Days

As previously mentioned, keeping an eye out on the fixture lists of the Performance Buzz and In-Play dividends eligible leagues can provide opportunities to earn more money from players.

This is especially true on single match days where only a couple or even just one eligible game is being played. Obviously with fewer players playing the chances of dividends increase as well as Media Buzz dividends if a player performs exceptionally well or if there is a slow news day.

The full Football Index dividends breakdown is shown below. This shows how on days where only one eligible is being played, one player could achieve up to 5p per share from Performance Buzz dividends as well as possible In-Play dividends.

In-Play Dividends

On the subject of dividends, the latest introduction of In-Play dividends by Football Index bought in a mixture of fantasy football as well as anytime bets on players.

Players are eligible for In-Play dividends during the first 30 days that they are purchased. This means that if a player has a busy schedule of eligible dividends games there’s an extra opportunity to make money on that player.

An example can be players that are playing in their eligible domestic league on a weekend and European competitions in the week, potentially racking up to 7-8 games in these periods.

This added opportunity for traders to make money through dividends can lead to a price increase for players that take set pieces or are on form.

Some traders go to great lengths to assess all of the upcoming fixtures and buy players on a 30 day turn around to try and make the most of In-Play dividends as well as the capital appreciation of players in this time.

Alternatively, like fantasy football, if you can find a player who is cheap to buy who takes set pieces such as penalties or free-kicks in an eligible league; you can get ahead of the market and buy early for a potential price increase when other traders catch on or In-Play dividends.

Player Agents

Amidst transfer rumours and player unrest at a football club, there is usually an agent pulling the strings in the background. Agents benefit from their players getting improved contracts or transfers as they typically take a commission of both.

Ex-footballers have spoken about how their agents have shaped their careers through not telling a player that a club was interested in them as the money wasn’t appealing enough to the agent.

This means that they have a lot of control over transfer speculation of players as well as deals going through. Some agents leak news to the press whilst others come out publicly to try put pressure on the clubs to sell players.

These actions obviously have a direct influence on the share price of player on Football Index with disruptive and famous agents having the ability to earn players high media scores and hence Media Buzz dividends.

The most famous of agents and often referred to as a ‘super-agent’ due to his client base of elite players is Mino Raiola. Under the watchful eye of Raiola are players like Paul Pogba, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matthijs de Ligt and Mario Balotelli.

Can you see the link of these players and controversy on and off the pitch?

Paul Pogba’s title of ‘Football Index Media Buzz King’ is partially down to the erratic nature of Raiola and his controversial statements to the press.

Gianluigi Donnarumma’s transfer window saga in Summer 2018 left a lot of AC Milan fans frustrated with the young goalkeeper begging to leave before eventually staying.

Matthijs de Ligt has been the big news story of the 2019 Summer transfer window with a bidding war making each of Manchester United, Liverpool, Barcelona, Juventus and other clubs’ favourite to sign him at some point.

Finally, Mario Balotelli is one of the most famous ‘bad boys’ of the Premier League era with his antics on and off the pitch catching headlines.

In the modern game the influence of agents is often overlooked but on Football Index doing your research can pay off.

Ending of a Career

The Football Index terms and conditions state that players that retire or sadly pass away will be removed off the platform one full day after the event has occurred. In this case, the money you have invested in the player will be taken by Football Index and just as a bet you will lose your stake.

However, Football Index tends not to be that quick at removing players with Mexican legend Rafael Marquez who is now at the prime age of 40 still on the platform despite his retirement in 2018.

There will inevitably be a drop in a players value if they announce retirement, they sustain a career-ending injury or they sadly pass away. Evidently, the older a player is the more likely that these circumstances may happen, this is another reason why Football Index traders heavily favour investing in young players. If you ever find yourself in this position where a player in your portfolios football career comes to a close the best advice is to opt for the ‘Instant Sell’ option and recoup the value of your shares.

Football Index Platform Changes

Periodically Football Index introduces some changes to the platform and updates are needed for something new to be added.

During these changes, there can be shifts in players value as traders find new strategies for their trading. A great example of this is the shift in traders buying goalkeepers (who are typically low cost) when the In-Play dividends were introduced and the opportunity to make 1p per share for every clean sheet in the first 30-day window after buying.

Alternatively, the share price of players can go the other way as Football Index traders panic sell shares in reaction to platform updates. The best example of this is when Football Index had their latest player position updates.

These updates are done automatically and are linked to Opta statistics to be impartial and for betting regulations.

During the latest update, Joshua Kimmich of Bayern Munich’s position shifted from Defender to Midfielder. This upset a large amount of traders who held shares in Kimmich due to his high Performance Buzz scores for a defender.

The nature of his playing style led to him being the second-highest Performance Buzz score winner on the whole platform for the whole 2018/19 season only second to Lionel Messi (1st: Lionel Messi – 6142, 2nd: Joshua Kimmich – 5762).

This situation was later resolved with Kimmich returning to the position of defender. However, this was too late for some traders who cashed out as they saw other traders in the market do so.

This highlights the importance of patience when trading on the platform and that panic selling although it seems sensible in the short term can lead to missing out in the long term.

Football Index Promotions

Everyone loves a freebie right? Football Index traders are no exception to this with Football Index in the past offering promotions where players can bag an extra 5%, 10% or even 20% on their net buys or net deposits in a certain time period.

Typically after a promotion is announced the Football Index goes crazy with the app sometimes freezing from activity. When it isn’t frozen , waves of green light up all over the player lists as money piles in and traders pick up shares.

In this case, the sooner you buy the more likely you are to benefit from the extra income entering the platform and the increased share values of players as demand spikes.

It is important to note here that traders normally have to ‘opt-in’ to these promotions and you should always check the Football Index press release and read the terms and conditions.

However, after the excitement of promotions and the heavy investment in the platform there comes the deadline which typically results in a dip on the platform. The reasoning behind this is that the money that players ploughed into buying futures for the promotional bonus have now received their payouts and now are taking their extra investment back out of players and possibly the platform.

It is important to watch out for this as players can get stung by joining the platform late into a Football Index promotion and buy players at their peak and experience a large drop in their portfolio when the deadline arrives.

 

Find out more about Football Index by reading our full Football Index Guide!

 

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